Am I the only one who plays late in game totals?

[Nylon]

I'm retarded......I keep playing these late no goal plays at the 82' mnute mark and 83' mark etc..... first I parlayed the Lyon no 4th goal and Liverpool no second goal, and Benfica scores in the 89'!!! Then I chase w/ a $600 play Real 0-0 draw parlayed w/ Lyon no 4th goal, and what happens?????????????? Lyon scored a freakin amazing goal in the 90', and I lose $800 by simply being stupid, the sad thing is I've done it before in the CL, and I always get burned!

I remember someone posted something about late 90" goals, and that they were very common, in fact the last few minutes of a soocer match has the highest rate of goals???? It's true, anyone else play these heavy juice bonehead plays?

 

[JackDee]

"hen I chase w/ a $600 play Real 0-0 draw parlayed w/ Lyon no 4th goal, and what happens?????????????? Lyon scored a freakin amazing goal in the 90', and I lose $800 by simply being stupid, the sad thing is I've done it before in the CL, and I always get burned!
"

Ι ve done this thing many times before I wisened up, live betting gets the adrenaline going and you can do stupid impulsive things, esp. the no goal option has got me burned many times, I actually set myself at one point a no live bet rule because everything i was making on the normal market i was blowing away in the live one...

"I remember someone posted something about late 90" goals, and that they were very common, in fact the last few minutes of a soocer match has the highest rate of goals"

Ι did, and yes the last ten minutes have a very high rate of goals, probably the highest (marginally than the rest of course), If i remember my stats correctly, because it ll take me some time to find where I ve put them.

"It's true, anyone else play these heavy juice bonehead plays?"

Depends on where you get them if they are heavy juiced or not, they are though most of the time. But, i did bet a no goals bet today at 1.3 (After i d been pondering all second half for the 1 and over goals scored bet) just on the starting outset of a 3 minute extra time, because I really saw this a slow reaction of the betfair market.

Especially if one team are desperately pressing for a goal, as in the benfica game and the leaving up plenty of open space for the counterattack it's very normal that if they don't score they will receive a goal as they are left wide open at the back, and lyon where playing againsta psv team down to ten, so a goal there was always a good possibility too.

 

[quantumleap]

I'm retarded......I keep playing these late no goal plays at the 82' mnute mark and 83' mark etc..... first I parlayed the Lyon no 4th goal and Liverpool no second goal, and Benfica scores in the 89'!!! Then I chase w/ a $600 play Real 0-0 draw parlayed w/ Lyon no 4th goal, and what happens?????????????? Lyon scored a freakin amazing goal in the 90', and I lose $800 by simply being stupid, the sad thing is I've done it before in the CL, and I always get burned!

I remember someone posted something about late 90" goals, and that they were very common, in fact the last few minutes of a soocer match has the highest rate of goals???? It's true, anyone else play these heavy juice bonehead plays?

I've been burned by them several times.

 

[Nylon]

Where do you guys play them, I used to play at betandwin, but got kicked out b/c of USA rule, now I lay at 365 and comperative-wise, 365 sucks IMHO, the limits are high, but so is the juice, sometimes I run both sites side by side and compare odds, it clearly shows 365 juices more. Anyway I need to break this habit.

 

[JackDee]

best place is betfair, that's where you get any decent prices, not many fancy exotic options but most of the bets there, is the no u.s. customers thing still on?

 

[Nylon]

best place is betfair, that's where you get any decent prices, not many fancy exotic options but most of the bets there, is the no u.s. customers thing still on?

Yeah, the US thing is on until the government quits being a jackass. About Betfair, do they offer many in-play soccer games, for example today, did they have all UEFA cup games or just a couple, aslo how does it work, does someone have to offer an in-game for you to match it, and are the limits pretty low? Just a quick sum up would be nice Jack, thanks!

 

[JackDee]

let me just say here that the u.s. is THE only westernized nation where instead of having a Bonus Betting market (while they have free market everything of course and every bussinessman out to make millions by fucking the lower classes over has the govt on their side) they still have the mob controling the gambling world outside the legalised states, and the only reason this is happening is of course not for the puritanical ethics facade, but because the mob, whitecollar or not, still controls gambling at large AND the u.s. cabinet, i know it's none of my bussiness but it's fucking pathetic really...

They offer a lot in play games, almost everything that's one tv you can get it there, i ve not surveyed this of course, but you can even get games just played in greece of local leagues, even local smaller bball league on, so there's no question about uefa, or cl, and yeap someone has to offer an in game bet for you to bet it (but I suspect they got their people setting the market pace if need be, not sure about that, just supposing). The limits are pretty high actually in the mainstream bets such as half time results over unders and full time results, lower in the fancier ones, but it depends on what you mean as high really if you are aiming at 10,000 per bet that'd be really hard to find in a competitive price even at the 1x2 results but maybe in uefa or cl you could, but I don't know a lot of people who bet these prices per bet, to sum up you can get pretty good liquidity according to the popularity of the game, for example at and around the odds I bet yesterday for the no goal about 10-12 thousand euros where traded, could have been more I don't really remember, and we are talking about a bet that didn't stay on for very long, have a look for yourself, cl game options that have enough coverage can get as much as a few millls turned around in both normal and live bets.

bol.

Jack.

 

[Nylon]

Thanks for your input buddy! Much appreciated

 

[ddarkside]

To avoid the US problem you can try sbobet, they offer only asian handicap and over under but you'll find many many matches in live
(more than betfair) and with high limits (it depends by the match and championship, but always over 1000 eur...on the other side you have to bet minimun 100). The only thing is sometimes you have to confirm many time the bet until they accept..

 

[acw]

What I seriously do not understand on BetFair is how come there is still so much activity on the Next Goal and x.5 Goals market while betting on the Total Goals market reducing the commission to 1%.

 

[ddarkside]

What I seriously do not understand on BetFair is how come there is still so much activity on the Next Goal and x.5 Goals market while betting on the Total Goals market reducing the commission to 1%.

I ask myself this question everytime i have a live bet with BF...and the same happen in the normal Asian Handicap (not available in live ) offers where the commission is 1% but you never find a better or equal odd compared to the same 1X2 match (obviously because of less liquidity)

 

[JackDee]

I for once didn't quite catch what acw is saying what's "and x.5 Goals market while betting on the Total Goals market reducing the commission to 1%." Might be a a bit hazy from just waking up what's that supposed to mean?

As for what dd is saying I think you can't find better or equal odds in the ah despite the 1% commision because it's a very fast moving, low margin and consequently a very tough market for the the layer or small outfit using betfair as their front to book and they are covering their asses. Let's not forget that major european bookmakers (take william hill or ladbrokes for example) are essentially NOT booking asian handicaps to any satisfactory degree for a more advanced gambler, operating at very high margins, with much less competitive lines more akin to the 1x2 line than the actual ah. (btw do ladbrokes still have this ridiculous 5% loss on the draw in a quarter goal ah...) That's one reason, secondly because the average layer "gets" the 1x2 line much more so most of these type of lay bets go there, and splitting the liability in three events is also much easier for the bankroll of the layer than two events. But all these are mere hypothesis, and they come close but don't actually explain the huge difference between 1 and 5% commisions and the incogruency to the actual lines. Does anyone here agree with my train of thought here though?

 

[ddarkside]

I for once didn't quite catch what acw is saying what's "and x.5 Goals market while betting on the Total Goals market reducing the commission to 1%." Might be a a bit hazy from just waking up what's that supposed to mean?

He was talking about the "total goals market" where you have "1 or more"
"2 or more"...till "7 or more" the commission is 1% and you can make the same "over/under 2,5" or "next goal" betting where but with lower fee

It's a similar situation to the AH like i said...you could be right about the -1/4 or -3/4 option because many punters aren't used to bet with...but when you se very big amount in 1x2 it's impossible...and you'll never find a the same amounts in AH with 100%...or these punters in 1X2 market are bookmakers with special commission and they cover their bet only in 1x2 and o/u 2,5...because a normal gambler is a monkey to place 10k bet at 2% (best discount possible) instead of 1% commission

 

[JackDee]

"because a normal gambler is a monkey to place 10k bet at 2% (best discount possible) instead of 1% commission"

I agree with what you are saying but there's a difference between a bet with a 5% commision from betfair but an inbuilt profit margin of 15% such as most draw bets and a bet with 1% commision with an inbuilt profit margin of 3% such as the asian handicaps. If i were laying a bet at betfair it would be reasonable to choose to pay betfair the extra 4% in a market that has enough room for profit such as the draw instead of the 1% in a market with little room for profit and fast moving lines subject to very small discrepancies in team formations, the weather, refs etc. etc. Because 15-5 is a 10% profit margin, or say even 5% if you lay it at a competitive market price, while 4%-1% is a 3 percent profit margin. I assume that's what both bettors and bookmakers or bookmaking fronts realise when they avoid the ah at betfair. And as I said in an earlier post that's what betfair recognized and dropped the high commisions in the ah as the only way they could compete with bookmakers in this area. Let's not kid ourselves, the easiest way to make money is not pinnacles way, the easiest way is the betandwin way, agressive ads to squares and other unaware people addicted to gambling, in media outlets aimed at the lower financial strata in particular, the less educated, less well off, and more desperate, very high vig, lots of stupid exotic bets (look at ladbrokes where they combine say goal scorers and exact scores and offer the average joe a bet seemingly made in heaven with actual vigs close to 30%), a high odds offer now and then to get more people in, maybe throw some bonuses around too, a calender with busty beauties via mail is welcome too.

They ll never win you because a. you outbankroll them b. you have the edge (the typical example of a gamblers ruin where in a casino it's mathematically proven by basic probability theory that if i have the edge and a vastly bigger bankroll than you then the probability that you go bust is 1, a certainty, you probably know all that and I am rambling but some people might not.) c. your edge is augmented even more by their parleying the odds d. a lot of them will become so addicted that even after a few good choices they ll chase away the losses until they blow it all away. All that seems very easy to find any suckers but if you count the millions of people still betting to find a "winning" system in the roulette, sweating over low lights in casinos over the world as we speak, in a game that they have no control over and the edge against them (well except from those techie serbians and their trajectory counting mobiles but that's another story), blowing away fortunes, it comes to show that peoples (myself included) capacity for stupidity, ignorance and above all self delusion is limitless.

Jack.

(sorry for the rant.)

 

[Nylon]

dddarkside I see you list pointbet odds sometimes, how would you rate that book?

 

[acw]

Sorry Jack,

It seems to me that you still do not get it.
Lets assume that you think that a match will go Over 2.5 goals.
Will you just look at the Over/Under 2.5 goals?
Or will you look too at the Total Goals market?

 

[JackDee]

ok, I am listening.

"Will you just look at the Over/Under 2.5 goals?
Or will you look too at the Total Goals market?"

I ll surely take a look at the Total Goals market too. So?

 

[acw]

Why does not everyone do that and simply ignore the Over/Under 2.5?

 

[JackDee]

Because I can do a poisson for goals scored if need be, a lot of people can, but not the vast majority. They know the over unders, they are accustomed to it, they are not accustomed to the total goals market, which is also not that clear cut for them. that's my justfication.

 

[ddarkside]

dddarkside I see you list pointbet odds sometimes, how would you rate that book?

Till now no problem with this book, in the past i've read some rumors not very positive about them because of they were licensed (don't know if regular or not) in Batam Island (Malayisia); now they have also a uk license but could be good advise to not leave big amount...i know also other people have an account with them (and they 're used to bet big amounts) no problem till now

dd